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Tennis Betting: How to Analyze Stats and Win Big while betting on Tennis and Wimbledon

With Wimbledon action progressing this week, here’s a look at how you can make better bets on Wimbledon and Tennis in general.

A sport with as many variables as Tennis requires you to make more informed decisions while placing your bets. Analyzing and evaluating data will help you make profits over an extended period of time.

1. Evaluation of the betting odds

Say you’re betting on a certain player to win the toss. The odds of this are happening are 50/50 meaning you should double your money if you win the bet. The odds however may be altered to only return you a profit of 95% on your bet (5% would be deducted as fee by the book).

Consistently betting on this would cause you to make a loss over a longer period of time. It is important that you understand the risk you’re taking before placing a bet.

There are 3 types of odds commonly used, Decimal, Fractional and Moneyline (American).

a. Decimal — Decimal odds of 2.0 mean that you will receive $2 for every $1 placed.

b. Fractional — Fractional odds of 2/1 mean that you will make a $2 profit on every $1 spent. The number on the left shows how much profit would be made on the number on the right if the bet is won.

c. Moneyline — A moneyline of +200 means that for every $100 spent on a winning bet, you would receive a profit of $200. A moneyline of -150 means that for every $150 spent on a winning bet, you would receive a profit of $100.

2. Choosing your bets (Over/Under) —

These bets are less popular and are often overlooked by bookmakers.

a. No. of Aces — Players like Hubert Hurkacz have a high Ace % and it is often not dependent on the opponent they face.

b. No. of Games/Sets — Analyzing patterns and trends of players’ past matches will help you recognise which future matches will go over or under a certain number of games/sets.

3. Relevant Data —

a. Surface — Each type of surface (Clay, Grass, Hard) favors players of different styles. For example, the slowness of the clay courts work for Rafael Nadal’s explosiveness. Mixed with his mental strength and fitness, Nadal has been able to dominate any tournament played on this surface throughout his career.

b. Head to Head — Historically, certain players may have struggled against a particular opponent of a similar level for whatever reason. Be it just a mental block or a mismatch of style, it is important to take note before placing any bets.

c. Tournament Round — How often have we seen players like Nadal and Djokovic rise to the occasion. Despite being ranked World №1, Carlos Alcaraz admitted that the occasion of the French Open Semi-Final got to him in his defeat to Novak Djokovic. Players with more experience in the final rounds, especially in the grand slams automatically have an advantage against younger talents.

d. Fitness and Injuries — During the season, players often get little to no rest and often pick up several knocks and other minor injuries. This could be a determining factor between opponents of a similar level.

4. Manage your Bankroll —

Managing your bankroll i.e the amount of money you have available to bet on your sportsbook at any particular time, is the one of the key determining factors — do not put all your eggs in one basket, as the old saying goes.

a. Diversify Your Bets: Spread your bets across different tennis matches to avoid an over-reliance on a single outcome.

b. Set a Budget: Your budget needs to be an amount that you can afford to lose. This is a fundamental rule of responsible gambling.

c. Percentage Betting: Allocate a specific % of your bankroll for each bet that aligns with your risk tolerance. This strategy is called flat betting and reduces the risk of overspending.

d. Create a Reserve: Set aside a reserve percentage within your bankroll to act as a safety net. This reserve can be used to recoup potential losses and provide stability during a losing streak.

e. Be Patient: This is crucial for bankroll management as you should always have a rough estimate of how much you have won/lost. Avoid placing too many bets at once, wait for the results before proceeding with further bets.

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